Supply Chain Developments

Sugars : India’s sugar crop is rebounding: India’s projected growth 2025/26 sugar output at 35 MMT (a 26% jump from the prior year) due to strong monsoons. Domestic sugar stocks will build, likely easing sugar prices for confectionery, beverages and cereal producers.

Wheat/Cereals : Reuters reported India’s 2025 wheat harvest far exceeded needs, raising FCI stocks to ~44 MMT and avoiding any need for imports. Ample wheat supplies (good rainfall, higher yields) suggest stable or lower flour prices, benefiting noodles, bakery and cereal manufacturers globally (and pressuring world wheat markets).

Starches : Analysts forecast a moderate relief in global corn starch costs: after months of tight supply and high freight rates, prices are expected to fall slightly in May-June 2025. Corn starch is key for thickeners (gravies, sauces), adhesives, and dairy stabilizers; price relief can ease margin pressure for sauces, soups and snack producers.

Oils : Indonesia’s government set the May 2025 crude palm oil (CPO) reference price at $924.46/ton (down ~3.8% from April), reflecting softer demand. Lower palm oil prices (and duty changes) in Asia typically feed through to cheaper oils for snacks and bakery products.

Spices & Seasonings : India’s domestic black-pepper crop is down sharply (Karnataka output ~30% below normal), so pepper prices remain “firm” due to tight supply. This could elevate costs for seasonings, spice blends and savoury flavourings.